Canadian data ahead: CPI and retail sales – NFB

The Economics and Strategy Group at the National Bank of Canada points out the key report to be released in Canada the upcoming week is the Consumer Price Index. They expect a 0.8% monthly increase. 

Key Quotes:

“A lot of attention will be on May’s consumer price index. Headline prices could have progressed 0.8% m/m before seasonal adjustment, helped in part by a sharp rebound in gasoline prices. This should allow the annual inflation rate to increase from -0.2% to 0.1%. The 12-month rate of CPI-common, meanwhile, should remain unchanged at 1.6%.”

“We will get an indication of consumer spending in early Q2 in Canada with the publication of April’s retail sales. Government-mandated lockdowns no doubt resulted in a historic decline in overall sales; we expect overall retail spending to have dropped about 14% month on month, hurt by lowers sales at auto dealers and gasoline stations. Excluding autos, retail revenues may have sunk 19.0%.