When are the UK jobs and how could they affect GBP/USD?

UK Jobs report overview

Early Tuesday, the UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) will release the April month Claimant Count figures together with the Unemployment Rate in the three months to March at 06:00 AM GMT. Given the data collection period covers the coronavirus (COVID-19)-led lockdown, today’s data becomes the key for the Cable traders to watch.

The UK labor market report is expected to show that the average weekly earnings, including bonuses, in the three months to March, might consolidate from the previous 2.8% to 2.7%, while ex-bonuses, the wages are also seen declining to 2.6% from 2.9% in the reported period.

The number of people seeking jobless benefits, namely the Claimant Count Change, is likely to increase by 150K in April versus +12.1K seen last. Further, the ILO unemployment rate is expected to pick up from 4.0% to 4.4% during the three months ending in March.

How could they affect GBP/USD?

With the failures to extend Monday’s recovery moves, GBP/USD takes rounds to 1.2200/2190 while heading into the London open on Tuesday. While fears of a trade war seem to put a fresh bid under the US dollar, disappointment over the UK government performance during the virus outbreak, not to forget Brexit pessimism, can weigh on the Cable. It should also be noted that today’s releases will reflect the job market’s action during the lockdown period, which in turn could keep the bears happy. Though, any surprise moves might not refrain to offer immediate gains to the GBP/USD pair.

Yohay Elam, Analyst at FXStreet explains, “The UK Claimant Count Change figure for April will test the employment market's resilience – and the government's furlough scheme. A figure that is better than the worst of the previous crisis would be positive for the pound, while other outcomes could be worse.”

Key notes

UK Jobs Preview: Claims calmed by the furlough scheme? Success can send sterling higher

GBP/USD Price Analysis: 100-HMA guards latest recoveries around 1.2200

About UK jobs

The UK Average Earnings released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is a key short-term indicator of how levels of pay are changing within the UK economy. Generally speaking, the positive earnings growth anticipates positive (or bullish) for the GBP, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).