USD/IDR moves towards 100-day SMA ahead of Indonesia trade balance

• USD/IDR players turn cautious ahead of monthly trade balance data.
• Gradually recovery towards 100-day SMA can be noticed.

With the monthly trade balance data on the radar, USD/IDR clings to 14,162 amid initial Asian session on Monday.

The Bank Indonesia’s (BI) decision to hold its monetary policy unchanged and Reuters’ report of the central bank “allowing” the currency to strength helped the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) during last week.

Adding to the pair’s downside could be across the board weakness of the US Dollar (USD) after the US Federal Reserve turned dovish in its latest monetary policy meeting.

May month trade data from Indonesia, up for release around 04:00 GMT, is expected to portray $-1.38 billion of trade balance compared to $-2.50 billion previous. The imports and exports are likely to come in -13.90% and -14.70% versus -6.58% and -13.10% respective priors.

Technical Analysis

Unless clearing 100-day simple moving average (SMA) level of 14,205 on a daily closing basis, chances of the quote’s pullback to recent low of 14,080 and then to 14,000 round-figure can’t be denied.

Meanwhile, an upside clearance of 14,205 opens the door for the pair’s another attention to challenge 200-day SMA level of 14,424 with 14,340 likely being an intermediate halt during the advances.