US political headwinds mean a December Fed hike most likely - ING

Analysts at ING are still forecasting three 25bp rate rises, but softer data and subdued inflation makes it more likely the next Fed rate hike will be in December rather than September.

Key Quotes

“President Trump has pinned his hopes of strong growth on meaningful tax cuts, but his defeat on healthcare & opposition against unfunded tax cuts from fiscal hawks suggest he may need to water these down. This would mean growth forecasts could be lowered.”

“There has been creeping doubt over recent months about their likely timing and scale, including within the Federal Reserve.”

“As such, it is unlikely to alter significantly the market’s rates outlook, given it was already extremely doubtful of the Fed’s own prediction of four 25bp rate hikes by the end of 2018.”