Back
27 Apr 2016
NZD/USD bulls commit ahead of Fed, despite trade balance
NZD/USD was a 20 pip range, scoring onto the 0.79 handle momentarily, on the release of the March trade balance.
The data arrived with a trade surplus of just 117m vs the expected +401m vs the prior 339m. Exports were 4.20bn vs the expected 4.65bn and prior 4.25bn (the drop due to the poor agricultural exports) while imports came in as 4.09bn vs the expected 4.28bn and prior 3.91bn.
The RBNZ is the main theme for the week and this data will be included in the review of the economy since their last meeting when rates were cut to a record low of 2.25%. However, most are not looking for the RBNZ to cut rates this week, though many see a rate cut in the coming months.
NZD/USD levels
0.6900 is the key resistance, but we have already seen a high of 0.6910. The 50 sma on the 4hr sticks is located at 0.6925 and a break there opens doors for a test of the 12th April highs of 0.6950 ahead of 0.6982. However, such short-term levels could be cleaned out on stops around the Fed later today should there be any dovish surprises the statement. Then, we are looking at a complete recovery of the 19th April downtrend of 0.7052 guarding 11th March lows of 0.7174.
The data arrived with a trade surplus of just 117m vs the expected +401m vs the prior 339m. Exports were 4.20bn vs the expected 4.65bn and prior 4.25bn (the drop due to the poor agricultural exports) while imports came in as 4.09bn vs the expected 4.28bn and prior 3.91bn.
The RBNZ is the main theme for the week and this data will be included in the review of the economy since their last meeting when rates were cut to a record low of 2.25%. However, most are not looking for the RBNZ to cut rates this week, though many see a rate cut in the coming months.
NZD/USD levels
0.6900 is the key resistance, but we have already seen a high of 0.6910. The 50 sma on the 4hr sticks is located at 0.6925 and a break there opens doors for a test of the 12th April highs of 0.6950 ahead of 0.6982. However, such short-term levels could be cleaned out on stops around the Fed later today should there be any dovish surprises the statement. Then, we are looking at a complete recovery of the 19th April downtrend of 0.7052 guarding 11th March lows of 0.7174.