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9 Dec 2015
AUD: GDP forecasts lowered following downgraded commodity prices - NAB
FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at NAB, notes that the Australia’s, Q3 GDP figures were consistent with their view that the recovery across the non-mining recovery is broadening, and recent business survey results suggest this momentum continued into Q4.
Key Quotes
“Despite this, downgraded commodity price forecasts have prompted a lowering of our real GDP growth forecasts to 2.7% in 2016 and 3.0% in 2017 (previously 2.9% and 3.2% respectively). Our unemployment rate forecasts are only a fraction higher however - as the composition of growth tilts towards more labour-intensive sectors. The RBA wants to keep monetary policy ‘stable’, so is unlikely to ease further absent a global shock, a surprise deterioration in the non-mining economy or a sharp reappreciation of the AUD.”
Key Quotes
“Despite this, downgraded commodity price forecasts have prompted a lowering of our real GDP growth forecasts to 2.7% in 2016 and 3.0% in 2017 (previously 2.9% and 3.2% respectively). Our unemployment rate forecasts are only a fraction higher however - as the composition of growth tilts towards more labour-intensive sectors. The RBA wants to keep monetary policy ‘stable’, so is unlikely to ease further absent a global shock, a surprise deterioration in the non-mining economy or a sharp reappreciation of the AUD.”