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14 May 2015
Stopped out of AUD/USD short - Nomura
FXStreet (Bali) - Nomura were stopped out of AUD/USD short following a poor
US retail sales, which saw some major USD selling across the board.
Key Quotes
"We entered into long USD/JPY and short AUD/USD last Friday going into nonfarm payrolls, expecting the number to exceed market expectations significantly."
"We started in moderate size, adding $5mn in both legs as the dollar trend is less clear than in the August 2014-March 2015 period. At 223k in April, the headline for nonfarm payrolls on Friday was below our forecast and just shy of the consensus expectation"
"This was followed by the US retail sales number this morning showing retail sales growth close to flat in April, below our forecast and consensus expectations (Nomura and Consensus: +0.2%) after rising by a revised 1.1% increase in April (previously reported as +0.9%)."
"The resulting USD moves led us to be stopped out of our AUD/USD trade at 0.81, while we still hold our USD/JPY long and are keeping our stop at 118.00 for now."
"When it comes to AUD/USD, it seems the current USD moves are proving the dominant force for the pair, where we forecast another RBA rate cut in Q4 (12 May 2015), and that may prove to be a theme for later this year."
"On a two- to three-month view we still see upside in the US data outlook with some signs that growth will rebound in Q2."
US retail sales, which saw some major USD selling across the board.
Key Quotes
"We entered into long USD/JPY and short AUD/USD last Friday going into nonfarm payrolls, expecting the number to exceed market expectations significantly."
"We started in moderate size, adding $5mn in both legs as the dollar trend is less clear than in the August 2014-March 2015 period. At 223k in April, the headline for nonfarm payrolls on Friday was below our forecast and just shy of the consensus expectation"
"This was followed by the US retail sales number this morning showing retail sales growth close to flat in April, below our forecast and consensus expectations (Nomura and Consensus: +0.2%) after rising by a revised 1.1% increase in April (previously reported as +0.9%)."
"The resulting USD moves led us to be stopped out of our AUD/USD trade at 0.81, while we still hold our USD/JPY long and are keeping our stop at 118.00 for now."
"When it comes to AUD/USD, it seems the current USD moves are proving the dominant force for the pair, where we forecast another RBA rate cut in Q4 (12 May 2015), and that may prove to be a theme for later this year."
"On a two- to three-month view we still see upside in the US data outlook with some signs that growth will rebound in Q2."