EUR/USD: A slow grind towards but not through parity seems likely – SocGen

Bonds are not hurting the Yen and Euro as much as other currencies, Kit Juckes, Chief Global FX Strategist at Société Générale, reports.

EUR/USD may not be the best way to trade the bond market sell-off

The surge in US Treasury yields is having more impact on other currencies, than it is on the Euro or Yen. Is sentiment so bearish and are short positions so big in these two, that they’ve become impervious? Maybe the Euro never really cared as much about long yields as it did about short-term rates (which aren’t moving much), while USD/JPY is simply reacting to ‘big figure-itis’, shying away from a push through 150 for now.

A ‘high for longer’ message on both Fed and ECB rates points to a slow Euro fall. Eurozone data aren’t brilliant but the divergence between US and Eurozone growth forecasts suggests that is largely in the price. A slow grind towards but not through parity seems likely.

EUR/USD may not be the best way to trade the bond market sell-off. GBP/USD is marginally more vulnerable, but one currency that usually tracks relative yields closely is AUD.