EUR/NOK: Too early to position for sustained move lower – Danske Bank

Economists at Danske Bank analyze EUR/NOK outlook.

Upward sloping profile for EUR/NOK in the coming months

In the near-term NOK will be very sensitive to news on the global investment environment and the combination of weaker global sequential growth and tighter global liquidity conditions is rarely a good cocktail for NOK. 

We expect NB to sharply revise lower their fiscal NOK FX sales in August but before then the fiscal FX transaction mismatch leaves NOK vulnerable. We thus maintain an upward sloping profile for EUR/NOK in the coming months before we pencil in a move lower on both EUR strength fading and the NOK making a 2023-comeback. 

We highlight the risk that our bullish NOK view could take longer to play out than in our forecast profile.

Forecast: 11.70 (1M), 11.70 (3M), 11.30 (6M), 10.80 (12M)