EUR/USD stays pressured around 1.1000 after Fed, ECB plays, US NFP eyed
- EUR/USD remains depressed after snapping two-day winning streak.
- ECB announces 0.25% rate hike, fastens pace of APP but couldn’t defend Euro.
- US Dollar licks Fed-induced wounds on mixed US data, banking crisis.
- US employment data for April will be the last key catalyst of the volatile week
EUR/USD holds lower grounds near 1.1010 after failing to cheer the comparatively hawkish European Central Bank (ECB) decision than the Federal Reserve’s. Apart from the ECB’s failure to keep the Euro bulls on the table, after two-day uptrend, the banking fears also weigh on the major currency pair during early hours of Friday in Asia.
On Thursday, European Central Bank (ECB) matched market forecasts by announcing a 25 basis points (bps) of increase to its benchmark rates. The ECB also announced faster dialing back of its Asset Purchase Programme (APP) to around EUR25 billion per month from July, from the current pace of EUR15 billion per month.
In return for a smaller rate hike, the ECB chose to remain hawkish and shut the door for rate hike pause while saying, “Inflation outlook continues to be too high for too long."
Following the, Interest Rate Decision, ECB President Christine Lagarde said, "We are not Fed-dependent in rate decisions, we can tighten if the Fed pauses."
On the other hand, the US Goods and Services Trade Balance improved to $-64.2B from $-70.6B prior and $-63.3B market forecast. Further, Initial Jobless Claims edge higher to 242K for the week ended on April 28 versus 240K expected and 229K previous readings.
More importantly, preliminary readings of Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Cost for the first quarter (Q1) of 2023 came in mixed. That said, Nonfarm Productivity dropped to -2.7% in Q1 from 1.6% prior and -1.8% market forecasts whereas the Unit Labor Cost jumped to 6.3% versus 5.5% expected and 3.3% prior.
It’s worth noting that the Fed’s hints for policy pivot called the US Dollar bears despite the rate hike of 25 basis points.
Elsewhere, bank fears are on their roll as Western Alliance and PacWest both recently signaled jitters in the US banking sector. On the same line, the fears of the US debt ceiling expiration also weigh on the market sentiment and exert downside pressure on the EUR/USD pair due to the US dollar’s haven demand.
Amid these plays, Wall Street closed negative and the yields were pressured too but the US Dollar bounced off weekly low.
Moving on, EUR/USD traders should pay attention to the monthly US jobs report for April to pare the weekly losses in case of a positive surprise from the headline Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data.
Technical analysis
EUR/USD stays inside a three-week-old bullish channel, currently between 1.1115 and 1.0950, with the latest bearish signals from oscillators.